A bluff... if I've ever seen one
So Somali Pirates are threatening to blow up the ship they are holding hostage for $20 million. You can read the article about the whole thing. I have been thinking about this for a little bit. They do have hostages, which is pretty much what is keeping them alive. I know that they got too greedy. Generally, most of the world didn't really care what was going on there until recently. But like a giant, the Pirates should have known that if they keep poking -- i.e. the hijackings -- eventually people/countries would eventually make it stop.
The "golden" age of modern Somali Pirates is over.
But in this specific case, initially, I was thinking with various warships surrounding it, there was no way that the Pirates would have a chance to win...until I realized they had a lot of hostages. But as I think about it now, I realize that (and this thought did occur, but I never dwelt on it) the Somali's food & water was limited. I realize now, that even if they'd sooner starve the hostages before starving themselves, eventually they would get too weak to fight off an invasion. I guess they realize that too and that they don't have much time now. Or more specifically they realize --- they can't win.
I know that Puntaland (part of the old Somalia they are from), is pretty much muslim. But unlike the suicide bombers who do it for eternal "glory", they are in it for cash. There is no glory. Even in the folk-lore that most of those suicide bombers dont' allow for this (aside: the 72 virgins that a lot of suicide bombers think is waiting for them, is never actually promised anywhere or written anywhere... it's pure folk-lore). There is no way they will blow themselves up because they didn't get money. I don't buy it. People who die for their beliefs do it after much thought, deliberation and determination. It is a sacrifice people seem to make for what they believe is greater. These guys didn't even think they would get caught before this mission.
I say the international folks sit and wait. Eventually they will either turn themselves in, or try to negotiate a way home without any cash or weapons. But they will not blow themselves up. They are like little children throwing a temper tantrum. They are testing to see how far the whole will go to stay comfortable. They are hoping the international community is too weak to stand up to them... or at least too stupid. I hope they are wrong.
I'd bet on it.
--
ሰላም ዮሃንስ
The "golden" age of modern Somali Pirates is over.
But in this specific case, initially, I was thinking with various warships surrounding it, there was no way that the Pirates would have a chance to win...until I realized they had a lot of hostages. But as I think about it now, I realize that (and this thought did occur, but I never dwelt on it) the Somali's food & water was limited. I realize now, that even if they'd sooner starve the hostages before starving themselves, eventually they would get too weak to fight off an invasion. I guess they realize that too and that they don't have much time now. Or more specifically they realize --- they can't win.
I know that Puntaland (part of the old Somalia they are from), is pretty much muslim. But unlike the suicide bombers who do it for eternal "glory", they are in it for cash. There is no glory. Even in the folk-lore that most of those suicide bombers dont' allow for this (aside: the 72 virgins that a lot of suicide bombers think is waiting for them, is never actually promised anywhere or written anywhere... it's pure folk-lore). There is no way they will blow themselves up because they didn't get money. I don't buy it. People who die for their beliefs do it after much thought, deliberation and determination. It is a sacrifice people seem to make for what they believe is greater. These guys didn't even think they would get caught before this mission.
I say the international folks sit and wait. Eventually they will either turn themselves in, or try to negotiate a way home without any cash or weapons. But they will not blow themselves up. They are like little children throwing a temper tantrum. They are testing to see how far the whole will go to stay comfortable. They are hoping the international community is too weak to stand up to them... or at least too stupid. I hope they are wrong.
I'd bet on it.
--
ሰላም ዮሃንስ
posted by Selam at 8:43 p.m.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home